Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.

Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts produced in real-time using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3% and 45.6% of the observations lying in the 50% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. The retrospective evaluation of our models shows that simple transmission models calibrated using routine disease surveillance data can reliably capture the epidemic trajectory in multiple countries. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.

Unsafe "crossover-use" of chloramphenicol in Uganda: importance of a One Health approach in antimicrobial resistance policy and regulatory action.

Since the introduction of antibiotics into mainstream health care, resistance to these drugs has become a widespread issue that continues to increase worldwide. Policy decisions to mitigate the development of antimicrobial resistance are hampered by the current lack of surveillance data on antibiotic product availability and use in low-income countries. This study collected data on the antibiotics stocked in human (42) and veterinary (21) drug shops in five sub-counties in Luwero district of Uganda. Focus group discussions with drug shop vendors were also employed to explore antibiotic use practices in the community. Focus group participants reported that farmers used human-intended antibiotics for their livestock, and community members obtain animal-intended antibiotics for their own personal human use. Specifically, chloramphenicol products licensed for human use were being administered to Ugandan poultry. Human consumption of chloramphenicol residues through local animal products represents a serious public health concern. By limiting the health sector scope of antimicrobial resistance research to either human or animal antibiotic use, results can falsely inform policy and intervention strategies. Therefore, a One Health approach is required to understand the wider impact of community antibiotic use and improve overall effectiveness of intervention policy and regulatory action.

Implementation of surgical site infection surveillance in low- and middle-income countries: A position statement for the International Society for Infectious Diseases.

Surgical site infection (SSI) rates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) range from 8 to 30% of procedures, making them the most frequent healthcare-acquired infection (HAI) with substantial morbidity, mortality, and economic impacts. Presented here is an approach to surgical site infection prevention based on surveillance and focused on five critical areas identified by international experts. These five areas include 1. Collecting valid, high-quality data; 2. Linking HAIs to economic incapacity, underscoring the need to prioritize infection prevention activities; 3. Implementing SSI surveillance within infection prevention and control (IPC) programs to enact structural changes, develop procedural skills, and alter healthcare worker behaviors; 4. Prioritizing IPC training for healthcare workers in LMICs to conduct broad-based surveillance and to develop and implement locally applicable IPC programs; and 5. Developing a highly accurate and objective international system for defining SSIs, which can be translated globally in a straightforward manner. Finally, we present a clear, unambiguous framework for successful SSI guideline implementation that supports developing sustainable IPC programs in LMICs. This entails 1. Identifying index operations for targeted surveillance; 2. Identifying IPC "champions" and empowering healthcare workers; 3. Using multimodal improvement measures; 4. Positioning hand hygiene programs as the basis for IPC initiatives; 5. Use of telecommunication devices for surveillance and healthcare outcome follow-ups. Additionally, special considerations for pediatric SSIs, antimicrobial resistance development, and antibiotic stewardship programs are addressed.

Infectious disease outbreaks among forcibly displaced persons: an analysis of ProMED reports 1996-2016.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates the number of forcibly displaced people increased from 22.7 million people in 1996 to 67.7 million people in 2016. Human mobility is associated with the introduction of infectious disease pathogens. The aim of this study was to describe the range of pathogens in forcibly displaced populations over time using an informal event monitoring system. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of ProMED, a digital disease monitoring system, to identify reports of outbreak events involving forcibly displaced populations between 1996 and 2016. Number of outbreak events per year was tabulated. Each record was assessed to determine outbreak location, pathogen, origin of persons implicated in the outbreak, and suspected versus confirmed case counts. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-eight independent outbreak events involving forcibly displaced populations were identified. Over 840,000 confirmed or suspected cases of infectious diseases such as measles, cholera, cutaneous leishmaniasis, dengue, and others were reported in 48 destination countries/territories. The average rate of outbreak events concerning forcibly displaced persons per total number of reports published on ProMED per year increased over time. The majority of outbreak events (63%) were due to acquisition of disease in the destination country. CONCLUSION: This study found that reports of outbreak events involving forcibly displaced populations have increased in ProMED. The events and outbreaks detected in this retrospective review underscore the importance of capturing displaced populations in surveillance systems for rapid detection and response.

Global infection prevention gaps, needs, and utilization of educational resources: A cross-sectional assessment by the International Society for Infectious Diseases.

OBJECTIVE: The Guide to Infection Control in the Hospital (Guide) is an open access resource produced by the International Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID) to assist in the prevention of infection acquisition and transmission worldwide. A survey was distributed to 8055 current Guide users to understand their needs. METHODS: The survey consisted of 48-questions regarding infection prevention and control (IPC) availability and needs. Dichotomous questions, Likert scale-type questions, and open-and closed-ended questions were used. RESULTS: Respondents (n=1121) from 194 countries and six WHO regions participated in the survey. 43% (488) identified as physicians. Personal protective equipment (PPE) availability, training, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing varied between regions. Only 11% of respondents from low-income countries reported consistent access to respiratory equipment, 12% to isolation gowns, 4% to negative pressure rooms or personnel trained in IPC, and 20% to antimicrobial resistance testing. This differed significantly to high and upper middle-income resource settings (p<0.05). 80% of all respondents used smartphones or tablets at the workplace. CONCLUSIONS: This survey demonstrates varied access to IPC equipment and training between high and low-income settings worldwide. Our results demonstrated many respondents across all regions utilize mobile technology, providing opportunities for rapid distribution of resource specific, up-to-date IPC content.

Planning an innovation marathon at an infectious disease conference with results from the International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance 2016 Hackathon.

A hackathon is best described as an 'innovation marathon'. Derived from the words 'hacking' and 'marathon', it brings together multidisciplinary teams to collaborate intensely over a short period of time to define a problem, devise a solution, and design a working prototype. International scientific meetings are conducive to successful hackathons, providing an audience of expert professionals who describe challenges and ensure the proposed solutions address end-user needs. Collaborations with local organizations and academic centers are crucial to attracting complementary specialties such as IT advisors, engineers, and entrepreneurs to develop sustainable projects. The core process of first identifying and deconstructing a problem followed by solution iteration is applicable to challenges at workplaces around the world. Ultimately, this model can be used to drive innovation and catalyze change in the global health community. The planning, execution, and outcomes of a hackathon event organized in conjunction with the International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance (IMED 2016) are described in this article. Physicians, public health practitioners, veterinarians, IT professionals, engineers, and entrepreneurs came together for 2days to develop solutions at the intersection of emerging infectious diseases and climate change. Projects that resulted from the IMED 2016 Hackathon included environmental impact assessment software for humanitarian organization relief efforts; enhanced communication tools to prevent disease outbreaks; a participatory mobile application to speed the elimination of rabies in Indonesia; integrated disease surveillance platforms; and an improved search function for infectious disease outbreak reports in the ProMED-mail network.